Flash-forward, the flu of December 09

Here are four interesting items I learned yesterday from King County’s chief epidemiologist, Jeff Duchin, MD.

  1. Lesson learned:  Closing individual schools is not effective for limiting flu transmission in a community.  Next time — if the virus appears to be more deadly — the health department will close all schools in the county, perhaps for 8 weeks or longer.
  2. Lesson learned #2: This virus spread far more rapidly than planning scenarios had predicted.  Basically, flu virus can be widespread before we know what’s hit us.
  3. Who’s first in line for a vaccine, if there’s a limited supply? Heavy-duty planning is underway for how to distribute an A-H1N1 (swine flu) vaccine next winter, assuming it’ll be available.  This will be in addition to the normal, annual flu shots.   First-responders, and most medical workers, are clearly at the top of the list.  Pregnant women, and people with compromised immune systems.  After that, it might be all children under 18, given signs that they’re being hardest hit so far.  (Normally, the elderly are considered most at risk, but not in this case.)
  4. If the virus remains less severe?  Expect simply a lot of people to be out sick, especially in schools, as everyone who didn’t get sick this spring, gets it on the second pass.   But, it wouldn’t be much different from what we’ve seen this past month.

And one note to the King County Board of Health:    Anyone watching (the meeting was recorded by King County TV) might be disappointed at the level of questioning by board members, as Dr. Duchin and other staff testified.  They asked thoughtful questions to clarify the facts.  But, nobody on the Board asked the simple questions, What parts of the “pandemic plan” did not work?  What surprises did the staff face? What needs to be improved before we face a severe pandemic?   (The lessons learned above came from a private interview, after the meeting.)